Saturday, November 15, 2008

'Wild' is back again!!

Yday market swing was pretty dramatically wild.. a 11% swing from the intraday bottom to the peak.. But I believe it is just a technical correction.. Nasdaq has tested its Oct bottom and once it touched it, it bounced back strong, gaining about 7% for the day. Dow ended 550 points up for no reason either.

Yday jobless calims data and todays US Retail Sales data was not any good. Retail Sales slid  by a record 2.8% in Oct, the fourth consecutive  monthly decline and the largest percentage point drop since records began in 1992. Retail sales report details the dollar value of purchases made at retail stores (auto dealers, department stores etc.. ). It is useful to divide the data into auto and non auto components, since automotive sales are prety volatile and in these markets they are adversely affected by the banks inability to lend money. Excluding auto the purchases dropped 2.2%, almost twice as much as 1.2% drop anticipated by the economists. Consumer confidence data this month remained near the lowest level since 1980. 

Add to the  mix the redemptions at hedge funds and the money thats being pulled out of Mutual funds and fund of funds. According to a research firm, nutual funds posted an outflow of $31.8 Bn in the week ended Nov 12, compared to an inflow of 2.2Bn the previous week. Hedge funds had to pay back $40.1 Bn in October, the largest outflow ever. and Fund of Funds lost about $38.3 Bn. Further more, the research firm expects the funds to continue selling liquid assets regardless of the price and performance. 


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