Again.. back.. after a long long long heitus.. I do not want to talk about the shit that spread over the last 8 or so months. Well,, I am still in deep pile of it. though, now I see signs I can swim out of it!! :)

Anyways, The market over the last 4-6 months has been stable trying to break both ways. Economic data has both been supporting and negating the investor sentiment. All the while, Fed, US Govt has been on its toes to prop up the sentiment on the smallest sign of weakness.. So far so good. But the real question is - Would the same plot be the game saver over the next year!!

Gold - has been my single best investment over the last 6 months.. (I got out of it when it is at 1200 ). I think Gold is poised for a breather or a correction here.. The bull story for gold has been that the sovereign nations are piling on gold as part of re-balancing their reserves, for the fact that dollar has lost its lusture as a safe haven. However, India, Russia are two countries which are shifting their reserves to Gold.. and China doing the same is a mere expectation. Infact CHinese Central Bank personnel did mention that they would not BUY any gold at these elevated prices. Next.. Dollar I guess will never lose its sheen as a reserve currency, and thus a safe haven.. It will simply not.. not in my lifetime!! I guess!!

No.. I am not contending that Gold is not poised for a rally here.. But, over the shortterm it might as well headed for a correction.. May be $1000..

A double dip recession in sight.. May be.. Investors are concerned about the deluge of dollars into the economy.. and thats the primary reason for the dollar being on the fall (in addition to high budget deficit, low interest rates).. and typically a flood of dollars shoudl lead to inflation, and yes, in that environ gold is the best hedge. However.. look at ydays KR earnings. a miss of 10 cents and a lowering of guidance of about 30 cents.. the reason being - defaltionary pricing pressure.

Next, Mexico, a commodity producer and sixth largest producer of Oil, has sought insurance policy (1 Bn) against oil price falling below $57 next year. A sign that the consumer demand for commodities would generally be weak, and the dollar might as well turn its trend here!!