Yeh hein 'Dow Jones' meri jaan!! :)

Well,, the cat is shot down!! Dow down about 514 points.. A pretty non-volatile day, as the news and neagtive earnings of the companies sinked in, the index kept falling. A neat trend in the p[ast weeks market - when ever the market is up, it is up on a very light volume, it is not a sign of strength or optimism..  and, most of the market action is happening in the last one hour of trading.. 

Last week Rio warned about the slowdown in China, putting downward pressure on commodities. Today BHP followed suit pushing oil and other commodities even lower. Oil, now is trading at $67, off from its high 0f $147, as concerns about demand slowdown mount across the globe. It is interesting to note that, the implied probability in $45-$55 oil futures is 7 times the normal average probability. OPEC was concerned about the falling oil price and has called for an emergency meeting on Friday. There would definitely a production cut, and the analysts and the cartel members differ on how BIG the cut would be (the range is 500,000 barrels to 2.5M barrels). I do think that oil is headed to $60 - $65, but prior to the meeting it would briefly touch ~$75, before falling back to $65 again.

Countries that are on the verge of bankruptcy - Iceland, Argentina, Russia, Hungary, Ukarine, Pakistan - and the list should pile on..

Walmart US division head had some interesting insights on consumer spending. In a "disturbing" trend, Castro-Wright said Wal-Mart for the first time is seeing a paycheck-related spike in sales, suggesting consumers are rushing to buy such necessities as soon as they have the cash. The percentage of overall sales from the days surrounding those pay periods has risen 250 basis points indicating consumers have reached a level where they are spending on a paycheck-to-paycheck basis. He added that many consumers have "maxed out their Credit card limits" and are quickly changing (read - cutting down) their spending habits. Though the retail stocks are punished, there is more downside room, as a NOT-MILD RECESSION is not fully priced in the stock price.

Earnings:

Allegheny Technologies, is one of the largest and most diversified specialty metals producers in the world, today reported earnings of  144.1M or 1.45 per share on sales of 1.39B. Provided guidance for Q4 in the range of 1 -1.10, and full year guidance of 5.51 - 5.61, below the estimates of 1.38 and 5.64 resp.Stock is trading at 22.81 and relatively unchanged after the earnings release. Much of the earnings weakness in earnings is attributed to the economic downturn and the strike at Boeing, delay of Boeing 787 program and screwed up margins as the raaw material costs have fallen significantly. However, management is bullish on teh cash flow in the future, including a significant reduction in managed working capital. With about 4x earnings, no short-term debt obligations, decent cash on the balance sheet and long-term oppurtunities in electrical energy generation and distribution and medical markets, I guess this stock is a value stock.

ATT (T) posted earnings of 3.2 B or 67 cents per share on revenues of 31.3 Bn below the estimates of 71 cents. 

*another incomplete post* .. 

Sammie made us watch a hindi movie tonight.. Yeh hein Mumbai meri Jaan.. a feel good movie... a perfect depiction of Mumbai, TV commentators, Mumbai police.. The movie is about how 5 people living in Mumbai are affected by the bomb blasts on 7/11. I loved the smooth ending,, an ending which makes one feel light and happy!!